Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 33 minutes ago
Sep 13, 26, 12:43 PM UTCSep 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if OpenAI (OpenAI Group PBC, OpenAI Inc, or successor) files for bankruptcy (Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 in the US, or an equivalent insolvency proceeding elsewhere) before September 30, 2027.
- Fire sales, acquisitions, restructurings, or down rounds that do not involve a formal insolvency filing resolve NO.
- The entity means the main company and its principal operating subsidiaries as of September 2026.
- Context: a friend claimed on September 13, 2026 that absent regulatory capture, OpenAI or Anthropic will go bankrupt within a year.
- I don't buy it.
- Making the market so we can bet on it.
