Current community forecast
No 80%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 10:37 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will space tourism become mainstream by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill prediction markets become mainstream by 2028?
Manifold Markets10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.
- His thesis: LLMs are getting good at writing proof scripts, which could dramatically reduce the cost of formal verification—historically prohibitive (the seL4 microkernel required 20 person-years and 200,000 lines of Isabelle for 8,700 lines of C).
- Key formal verification languages include Lean, Coq/Rocq, Isabelle, Agda, F*, and Dafny.
- Currently, these are niche tools used primarily in academia and specialized industrial applications (cryptographic protocol stacks, verified compilers, microkernels).
- This market tests whether AI-driven improvements will translate to widespread adoption within ~5 years.
- Resolution Criteria:
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,500 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
- 180-199+18.0pt54.5%
- 200-219-5.0pt37.6%
- 220-239-7.2pt5.9%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 18, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $73,500 or above+18.0pt98%
- $73,000 or above+5.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes91.6%
- No8.4%
- Total Vol
- $280.9K
- 24h Vol
- $279.4K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 17, 2026?
- Minneapolis+67.0pt99%
- Miami+20.0pt99%
- Houston+45.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $282.3K
KALSHINasdaq-100 price on Sep 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- 29,220 or above99%
- 28,810 or above98%
- 28,860 or above98%
+97 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $237.7K
- 24h Vol
- $236.7K
- BTC price on Sep 17, 2026 at 3pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 17, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 17, 2026?
- Trinbago Knight Riders vs Guyana Amazon Warriors
- Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 17, 2026?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 17, 2026?
- Meta (META) Up or Down - Daily
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 17, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? resolve?
- Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will formal verification become "mainstream" before 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Martin Kleppmann (author of Designing Data-Intensive Applications) argues that AI will bring formal verification into the software engineering mainstream.