Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 67.4%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 11, 23, 10:33 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a human mission successfully land on the Moon again by the end of 2026?
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KalshiRules
Firefly is a private spaceflight company.
- The Blue Ghost lander has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon.
- It should launch in 2026.
- For a successful mission the Blue Ghost lander needs to soft-land on the moon,
- and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.
- Blue Ghost M2 is preceeded by Blue Ghost M1
