Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 96.2%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 16, 23, 2:45 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Astrobotic Technology's Griffin Mission 1 mission successfully land on the moon?
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KalshiRules
Astrobotic Technology is a private spaceflight company.
- The Griffin lander has been contracted by NASA under the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program to build and fly a lander to the surface of the moon.
- It should launch in 2026.
- For a successful mission the lander needs to soft-land on the moon, and the payloads on the lander need to be operational.
- Mission 3 is preceeded by Griffin Mission 1 and Peregrine.
