What are the current odds for Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 65% as of November 3, 2026.

Will FDA approve more than 10 new mRNA based vaccines before 2030?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 65%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Apr 20, 23, 9:40 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Vaccines approved after this market starts are counted, regardless of when developement or trials started.