Will evidence come to light by 2028 that microplastics have meaningfully lowered testosterone levels? (READ DESCRIPTION)
One-OffHealth & MedicineScience2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.2%
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12
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleDec 30, 24, 3:58 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
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Rules
Inspired by this tweet: https://x.com/esyudkowsky/status/1873740847159845193?s=46&t=62uT9IruD1-YP-SHFkVEPg
- This resolves YES if a scientific consensus (or even something halfway to a scientific consensus, like a leading theory that is covered substantially in the press, or several well-received, seemingly conclusive, and influential Nature/Science papers, etc) emerges that (1) testosterone levels are indeed declining on a societal level and this isn’t due to changing measurement standards, sampling bias in historical data, etc. and (2) microplastics are a leading cause (or one of several leading causes) of this.
- Things that will not be sufficient for a resolution:
- -studies showing that when you dose mice with high levels of microplastics, it affects their hormones (obviously it could)
- -individual journal articles (even a large number of them) that conclude one way or the other on this matter (I’m sure there will be tons of these, don’t be a “man of a single study”), especially those of the current paradigm which make broad claims from pinpoint experiments or correlational studies
- -a political consensus
