Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.9%
Forecasters
117
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMay 30, 22, 8:23 PM UTCJan 7, 70, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump spend any time in prison before he dies?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a night in prison / jail by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
