Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 71.3%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 24, 8:11 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRules
China is assessed to have 500 nuclear warheads as of Jan 2024.
- The United States Department of Defense believes China "will probably have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030."
- Will China's stockpile of operational nuclear warheads be 1,000 or more before 2030, according to credible sources?
Open markets
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- No+0.5pt72.3%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will China double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads before 2030? resolve?
- Will China double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will China double its nuclear arsenal to 1,000 warheads before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: China is assessed to have 500 nuclear warheads as of Jan 2024.