Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 90.8%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 21, 23, 10:29 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria here are fairly loose—the birth of a profession relatively recognizable as similar to that of the “Blade Runner” in the 2049 film will satisfy here.
- Does not need to be an embodied AGI that is the runner or the hunter (and the former can of course also be human), but AGI needs to have been widely recognized as “invented” and active before 2049 for this market to be possibly resolved “yes.” (Bug hunting for OpenAI in 2024 does not even remotely count as a “yes.”)
- Haven’t seen the movie yet? You’re missing out! Check out the trailer here:
- (https://www.youtube.com/embed/Icx4xul9LEE?si=V3Y6yH8RpaNve5r0)
