Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
AIOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 54.3%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 16, 24, 2:34 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
It's easy to envision one or two purely-AI-written books, given good marketing, making it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list in the capacity as novelties.
- Therefore, if we want to gauge proliferation of well-written AI-written fiction capable of appealing to audiences not primarily seeking novelty, we want to check for a larger count.
- I have, for this market's purposes, arbitrarily chosen a target of 5.
- Do we expect at least five purely-AI-written books to make it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list before the end of 2030?
- (This could, of course, be confounded by e.g. the NYT establishing a policy of not putting AI-written novels onto the list even if they're selling well.
- If there exist better benchmarks for the same phenomenon, I encourage others to make similar markets resolving against those better benchmarks and link them in the comments here.)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031? resolve?
- Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: It's easy to envision one or two purely-AI-written books, given good marketing, making it onto the NYT fiction bestseller list in the capacity as novelties.