Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 86.8%
Forecasters
38
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleDec 15, 22, 6:14 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will anyone die from falling debris from a Space X rocket, satellite , or other launch object before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill a major meteor strike hit Earth before 2030?
KalshiWill Artemis 4 return to Earth with all of its crew alive?
Manifold MarketsEvidence of life out of Earth by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
If it's unknown where exactly the death occurred, there must be a >=50% chance it occurred at least that far away.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030? resolve?
- Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will anyone die at least 1000km from Earth before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If it's unknown where exactly the death occurred, there must be a >=50% chance it occurred at least that far away.