Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 79.7%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 12, 25, 2:13 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 1:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if anyone current living is verified as 120 years old by 2030.
- Only Jeanne Calment (1875-1997) has been verified as reaching 120. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_living_people
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
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- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030? resolve?
- Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will anyone currently living be verified as 120 years old by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if anyone current living is verified as 120 years old by 2030.