Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 78.4%
Yes 78.4%Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 24, 6:48 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 2:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiRules
For this purpose, abstract synthetic data refers to data generated by an algorithm that can be stored in less than 100MB, such as an algorithm that randomly generates programs and runs them.
- Neural network models can learn the same task through different methods:
- Pre-training: 10^7-10^8 samples
- Fine-tuning: 500-50000 samples
- Few-shot learning: 5-10 samples
- Initially, most models were directly pre-trained on the required task, such as digit classification.