Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.1%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 26, 7:04 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
OpenAI resets Codex weekly usage limit by which date?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Monthly usage limit is basically useless, I only use the limit so that I can track if it jumps suddenly and know I need to reset chats or whatever.
- I care more about individual chats chewing usage than having a monthly limit, so I end up gradually raising the limit until I hit it each day/week/etc. At the very least, I'd like it to reset in alignment with the usage cycle (weekly), because it's not useful for me to see that I spent $X this month when it was all prior to the change -- how much did I spend since I went over the limit this week?
- Resolves YES if I can change my usage limit to [amount] per [day/month] instead of only on a monthly reset cycle.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-32.6pt43%
- 1530+0.1pt4%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $321.7K
- 24h Vol
- $92.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.0pt67%
- ChatGPT-0.5pt17.5%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt81%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,86%
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- November 30,-3.5pt78%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhat will Todd Blanche say during his WH Press Briefing?
- AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
- Weaponize / Weaponized / Weaponization99%
- Trump (3+ times)99%
+20 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.4K
- 24h Vol
- $45K
POLYMARKETWhich AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- Google39%
- Microsoft32%
- SpaceXAI21%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.5K
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
- Tencent market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic allow me to have a daily or weekly usage credit limit in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic allow me to have a daily or weekly usage credit limit in 2026? resolve?
- Will Anthropic allow me to have a daily or weekly usage credit limit in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Anthropic allow me to have a daily or weekly usage credit limit in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Monthly usage limit is basically useless, I only use the limit so that I can track if it jumps suddenly and know I need to reset chats or whatever.