Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.7%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 1:19 AM UTCApr 6, 30, 1:18 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- The market will resolve to "Yes" if the next novel published by Andy Weir contains a setting primarily located in outer space (e.g., aboard a spacecraft, on a planet other than Earth, or a space station).
- It will resolve to "No" if the narrative is set primarily on Earth.
- Resolution will be based on the official plot summary, author confirmation, or the published content of the book upon release.
- The market will resolve once the book is officially published or a definitive plot synopsis is released by the publisher or author via their official website (https://andyweirauthor.com/) or a major news outlet.
- Andy Weir, known for his hard science fiction, has confirmed in interviews (as of March 2026) that he is currently writing a new standalone science fiction novel.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space? resolve?
- Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space? is scheduled to resolve on April 6, 2030.
- How is Will Andy Weir’s next novel take place in space? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria