Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.7%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 6, 26, 1:19 AM UTCApr 6, 30, 1:18 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- The market will resolve to "Yes" if the next novel published by Andy Weir contains a setting primarily located in outer space (e.g., aboard a spacecraft, on a planet other than Earth, or a space station).
- It will resolve to "No" if the narrative is set primarily on Earth.
- Resolution will be based on the official plot summary, author confirmation, or the published content of the book upon release.
- The market will resolve once the book is officially published or a definitive plot synopsis is released by the publisher or author via their official website (https://andyweirauthor.com/) or a major news outlet.
- Andy Weir, known for his hard science fiction, has confirmed in interviews (as of March 2026) that he is currently writing a new standalone science fiction novel.