Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025?
AIManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Jul 16, 2025, 2:12 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 99%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 204 days ago
StaleFeb 9, 25, 4:08 AMJul 16, 25, 2:12 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
99%
1%
Rules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Feb 1, 2027+7.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt93%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $298.6K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above98%
- $73,500 or above97.5%
- $61,000 or above97%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $168.1K
- 24h Vol
- $152.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BMW Championship Winner
- XRP price on August 21
- XRP price on August 31
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 99% as of January 29, 2026.
- When does Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025? resolve?
- Will an open-source LLM under 10B parameters surpass Claude 3.5 Haiku by EOY 2025? is scheduled to resolve on July 16, 2025.