Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
AIOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
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1
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binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 26, 26, 5:02 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade containment; we need more details is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? resolve?
- Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2028.
- How is Will "An OpenAI model left notes about how to evade..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.