Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 71.3%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleApr 17, 24, 2:06 AM UTCJan 2, 75, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns?
Manifold Marketswill human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
Manifold MarketsWill a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This question will resolve to Yes if either a craft or a person accomplishes what could fairly be called a circumnavigation of another object in the Solar System before January 1st 2075.
- For example, if a person were to land on an asteroid and walk completely around it, that would resolve to Yes.
- If a rover were to do the same thing, that would also be Yes.
- If a balloon/plane/helicopter were to float or fly completely around a planet or moon with an atmosphere, that would also be Yes.
- Merely orbiting an object would not count.
- Ambiguous cases like a person walking around a small protuberance on an asteroid instead of the main body would also resolve to No.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.6pt9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $106.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No54.5%
- Yes45.5%
- Total Vol
- $118.3K
- 24h Vol
- $30.3K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic-0.6pt58.8%
- SpaceX+0.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI-0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt16.7%
- Google+0.3pt7.8%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075? resolve?
- Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2075.
- How is Will an object in the Solar System other than Earth be circumnavigated by 2075? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question will resolve to Yes if either a craft or a person accomplishes what could fairly be called a circumnavigation of another object in the Solar System before January 1st 2075.