Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 63.9%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 28, 24, 5:54 PM UTCJan 2, 61, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a year in outer space?
Manifold Marketswill human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
Must be a manned mission to the Outer Solar System (beyond orbit of Jupiter)
- Must be achieved before 2061
- Humans do not need to step foot on a solid object in the Outer Solar System, but must enter orbit around a celestial object in that region (gas giant planets or asteroid)
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 64% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? resolve?
- Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2061.
- How is Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Must be a manned mission to the Outer Solar System (beyond orbit of Jupiter)