Current community forecast
No 85.4%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 24, 11:08 AM UTCJan 1, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the hypothetical Planet 9 be discovered before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns?
Manifold MarketsDoes Planet Nine exist?
Manifold MarketsUS solar capacity installed in 2026
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.6pt9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $106.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No54.5%
- Yes45.5%
- Total Vol
- $118.3K
- 24h Vol
- $30.3K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic-0.6pt58.8%
- SpaceX+0.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI-0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt16.7%
- Google+0.3pt7.8%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035? resolve?
- Will a new planet be discovered in our solar system by 2035? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.