Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 7:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 81.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJul 15, 26, 8:56 PM UTCFeb 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any G7 country pass a mandatory AI-generated content labeling law before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill AI-generated content be banned or clearly labeled by at least one major social platform (Meta, X, TikTok,YouTube)?
Manifold MarketsWill Netflix offer a basic subscription tier whose catalogue consists predominantly of AI-generated content by EOY 2036?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post An analysis of AI-generated content at the Mechanistic Interpretability Workshop is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.