Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 89.4%
Forecasters
70
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleDec 2, 23, 5:39 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
In order to resolve YES, someone must provide an example of such a novel.
- Be at least 60,000 words.
- Be interesting, not some attempt to game the system like "Alice wanted to see how high she could count, so she said "1", then "2", then "3", then "4"..." It must seem like something a human might write if they were trying to write a good novel.
- Not have obvious continuity errors.
- Be created from a single input prompt, no further prompting or human error-correction.
- (If it's an automated prompting, like telling it "write the next chapter" over and over, that's fine.