Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.9%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 25, 24, 11:02 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
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PolymarketWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRules
if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.
- The market resolves YES if he converts to Christianity in a meaningful way, ie if the average person would look at his actions and would describe him as having converted to christianity.
- Resolves NO in 2027 otherwise.