Will alcohol, tobacco, & sugar taxation get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
One-OffRegulationHealth & Medicine3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70.1%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleOct 31, 23, 6:12 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
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Rules
To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support higher taxes on either alcohol, tobacco, or sugar, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like Strongminds-style mental health interventions and Georgism!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!
