Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58%
Forecasters
66
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingApr 22, 26, 10:08 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:07 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI find an infinite mana exploit in Manifold by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsRules
From https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zero-day-vulnerabilities/:
- Encouragingly, we also haven’t seen any bugs that couldn’t have been found by an elite human researcher.
- Some commentators predict that future AI models will unearth entirely new forms of vulnerabilities that defy our current comprehension, but we don’t think so.
- Software like Firefox is designed in a modular way for humans to be able to reason about its correctness.
- It is complex, but not arbitrarily complex.
- By 2029, will this turn out to be false?
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 58% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher? resolve?
- Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zero-day-vulnerabilities/: