Current community forecast
No 79.9%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 30, 23, 9:00 PM UTCJan 14, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a top 5 smartphone brand by market share is available on sale with a crystal material discovered as part of DeepMind’s crystal structure work in any part of it's composition, before the end of December 2028.
- Top 5 brands by market share are currently Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo, but I will re-review this when relevant.
- This restriction is to rule out hobbyists or other small-run shops pushing out something that may technically meet the criteria but is not widely available to verify room material claims.
- The phone must be on sale, not just up for preorder, and in shops and not just a paper launch.
- Crystal material must be a component of the phone and not the manufacturing process.
- Close date is set so I don’t have to resolve immediately over New Year.