Current community forecast
No 91.9%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 5, 24, 4:39 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Researchers in China have developed a water-based battery, which is claimed to be much safer and energy-efficient than “highly flammable” non-aqueous lithium batteries.
- Interesting Engineering | Nature Energy Paper
- Resolves YES if a top 5 smartphone brand by market share is available on sale with an aqueous battery in any part of it's composition.
- Top 5 brands by market share are currently Samsung, Apple, Xiaomi, Oppo and Vivo, but I will re-review this when relevant.
- This restriction is to rule out hobbyists or other small-run shops pushing out something that may technically meet the criteria but is not widely available to verify aqueous battery claims.
- The phone must be on sale, not just up for pre-order, and in shops and not just a paper launch, before January 1st 2028.