Current community forecast
No 97.7%
Forecasters
55
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 18, 22, 12:26 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/
- Closes Oct 12, 2025.
- Expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2030.
- Close date updated to 2029-12-31 11:59 pm
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? resolve?
- Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/