Will a rover successfully rove on any planet other than Earth or Mars by the beginning of 2040?
One-OffSpace13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 68.3%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 30, 23, 10:33 PM UTCJan 1, 40, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
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Floating or flying "rovers" will also count, such as would potentially be useful on Venus or Jupiter.
- In order to qualify as a "rover", it must be capable of moving arbitrary distances and have a long-term power source such as solar panels or an RTEG.
- A short term battery-powered craft doesn't count, nor does a stationary lander.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a rover successfully rove on any planet other than Earth or Mars by the beginning of 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a rover successfully rove on any planet other than Earth or Mars by the beginning of 2040? resolve?
- Will a rover successfully rove on any planet other than Earth or Mars by the beginning of 2040? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Will a rover successfully rove on any planet other than Earth or Mars by the beginning of 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Floating or flying "rovers" will also count, such as would potentially be useful on Venus or Jupiter.
