Current community forecast
No 98.8%
No 98.8%Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 7, 24, 11:13 PM UTCJul 2, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Man City to face transfer restriction by 2027 summer transfer window?
PolymarketWill there be any mission that makes it to Mars during the 2026-27 Hohmann transfer window?
Manifold MarketsWill the first Starships to Mars launch before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow many spacecraft will successfully make it to Mars during the 2028-29 Hohmann Transfer window?
Manifold MarketsWhich is first: Crewed Starships to Mars, or California high speed rail?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833: > The first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens.
- These will be uncrewed to test the reliability of landing intact on Mars.
- If those landings go well, then the first crewed flights to Mars will be in 4 years.
- Will the first part of this tweet happen?
- Update 2026-04-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves Yes if at least one Starship is plausibly sent to Mars (does not require a landing attempt).
