Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Starship 55%
Starship 55%Forecasters
51
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 23, 24, 2:14 PM UTCJan 2, 35, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a plan to connect Liverpool to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?
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Manifold MarketsWill a plan to connect Edinburgh to London via high-speed rail be approved before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Vietnam approve the construction of a Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City high-speed rail project before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiRules
Starship: at least one human must land, successfully and alive, on Mars in a Starship or successor vehicle.
- the named outcome: At least one human must travel, successfully, from SF to LA (or the reverse).
- Tracks must be capable of at least 90mph fo SF-Gilroy and Burbank-Anaheim, and at least 155 mph for the remaining pieces, with the majority of the travel distance exceeding those minimums.
- (Current plans have speeds below what would normally qualify as HSR for those sections.
- And obviously the train will slow down for intermediate stops.)
- If either program is cancelled, successor programs will be used instead.
