Current community forecast
1 or more 84.3%Leader of 3 outcomes
1 or more 84.3%Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 13, 24, 3:03 PM UTCApr 2, 29, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be any mission that makes it to Mars during the 2026-27 Hohmann transfer window?
Manifold MarketsMan City to face transfer restriction by 2027 summer transfer window?
PolymarketWill the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Manifold MarketsWill another spacecraft successfully land on the Moon in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk ever make it to Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
Mars must be final destination, no flybys.
- Must be working in some capacity upon arrival to Mars (can't blow up on the launch pad or fail to make it out of Earth orbit).
- It doesn't have to land successfully, just get to Mars, so orbiters count.
- I will add more options if there are many missions planned closer to the transfer window date.
- See http://www.clowder.net/hop/railroad/EMa.htm for more windows.
- [link preview]
