What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk ever make it to Mars??

Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of October 23, 2026.

How is Will Elon Musk ever make it to Mars? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Elon Musk ever makes it to Mars.

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Will Elon Musk ever make it to Mars?

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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 7:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 90%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

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Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves YES if Elon Musk ever makes it to Mars.

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Will Elon Musk ever make it to Mars?

Will Elon Musk ever make it to Mars?

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Open markets

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?

How many launches will SpaceX have in October?

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?

SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by which date?