Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 98.8%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 8, 24, 1:51 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one Starship leave Earth heading for Mars in the 2026 launch window?
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Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
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PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRules
Elon Musk has stated on X (formerly known as Twitter) that the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2026:
- https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833?t=vksvLiovvh5ZD-XvdX5V0w&s=19
- Market resolves YES if successful crewed or uncrewed launches happen before 1 January 2027 and NO otherwise