Current community forecast
Yes 71.1%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMay 23, 26, 8:26 PM UTCDec 31, 46, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Europa by EOY 2046?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Rover: some kind of permanent robotic system, generally comparable to lunar or Martian rovers, but not limited to specific designs.
- Permanent: designed to operate indefinitely; has a chance of lasting many years like other rovers.
- Land: operate on the surface as designed.
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.6pt9%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $106.4K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No54.5%
- Yes45.5%
- Total Vol
- $118.3K
- 24h Vol
- $30.3K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic-0.6pt58.8%
- SpaceX+0.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI-0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt16.7%
- Google+0.3pt7.8%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Io by EOY 2046??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Io by EOY 2046? resolve?
- Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Io by EOY 2046? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2046.
- How is Will a rover from Earth land on the moon Io by EOY 2046? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Rover: some kind of permanent robotic system, generally comparable to lunar or Martian rovers, but not limited to specific designs.