Current community forecast
Yes 64%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 23, 1:27 PM UTCMay 31, 27, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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https://www.reuters.com/technology/un-chief-backs-idea-global-ai-watchdog-like-nuclear-agency-2023-06-12/
- If an international AI watchdog body, modeled after the IAEA, comes into legal force before May 31, 2027, this will resolve YES.
- Detailed criteria to follow.
- [link preview]The ratifying members need NOT include top ranked nations by compute power, such as U.S. or China; the goal of this market is not to speak to any projections of its efficacy in its infancy.
- Critieria for Legal Force: The judgment of whether this qualifies as coming into force will be from multiple (at least 2), written, authoritative news sources (i.e: NYT, WAPO, FT, WSJ); if multiple authoritative sources are not available by May 31, 2027 then this will resolve NO.
- Criteria for Similarity (all must be satisfied):