[Metaculus] Will an International AI regulatory agency for oversight of transformative AI be established before 2030?
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Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 66.2%
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20
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated yesterday
StaleOct 16, 23, 1:24 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 8:00 PM UTC
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Will an international AI regulatory agency, like IAEA, for oversight of transformative AI systems be established before 2030?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- Resolution criteria
- This question resolves as Yes if, on January 1st 2030, at least 20 countries accept the statutes of an actively operating organization that regulates transformative AI projects by monitoring the capabilities of AI labs in those countries.
- The question resolves as No otherwise.
- This market is managed by a bot.
