Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 69.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 22, 8:22 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will anyone die from a weaponized pathogen invented by AI by 2029?
Manifold MarketsIf I infect myself with Alpha-Gal syndrome, will I regret it 6 months later?
Manifold MarketsWill a Hantavirus Vaccine be created in 2026? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsEbola pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
PolymarketRules
A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count.
- It must be a pathogen that did not develop in the wild.
- Modified forms of wild pathogens count iff the modifications affect its behavior such that it is a greater threat to humans.
- (If there's a tradeoff involved, it must have become more of a threat on at least one axis.
- For example, if smallpox is modified to be more deadly but less transmissible, that qualifies.)
- If there are significant doubts as to whether the pathogen originated in a laboratory or in the wild, it does not qualify.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $22.1K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.8K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000+1.0pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? resolve?
- Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: A natural pathogen that escapes from a lab or is deliberately released does not count.