Current community forecast
Yes 71%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingApr 10, 23, 6:45 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2031?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins the 2024 election, will a human walk on the Moon by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2037?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2031.
- (The 2030 market has a large amount of No positions even at 80%, so let's see where people become sure it'll happen!)
- I keep an ordered list of human moon landing markets here: @/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again
- @/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun
- @/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882
- Artemis 2 timeline: @/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026