Current community forecast
Yes 70.8%
Forecasters
92
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 5, 23, 9:11 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill humans set foot on the Moon again before an unmanned SpaceX Starship lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following countries will the next astronaut to set foot on the moon represent?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
Inspired by https://xkcd.com/893/.
- Resolves YES when a human sets foot on the moon or NO when there are no longer any living humans who have set foot on the moon, whichever happens first.
- Closing date will be extended as needed.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living? resolve?
- Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Inspired by https://xkcd.com/893/.