Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 2:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastJavokhir Sindarov 68%
Forecasters
70
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 26, 6:19 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
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Manifold Markets2026 World Chess Championship: Winner
PolymarketFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
KalshiRules
The next World Chess Championship will feature the youngest participants ever.
- Defending champion Gukesh will face off against Candidates winner the named outcome.
- Sindarov won the qualification very convincingly and is currently #5 in live ratings.
- Gukesh has been struggling recently and has dropped 55 points over the past year (currently #15).
- However, these things change quickly, and experience in these matches is paramount.
- First-time challengers often struggle with nerves at the beginning of the match, which could give Gukesh an advantage.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner · Javokhir Sindarov 67%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship? · Javokhir Sindarov 70%
- Also available on Polymarket — 2026 World Chess Championship: Winner · Javokhir Sindarov 75%