Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJavokhir Sindarov 68.8%+0.1pt
Forecasters
70
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.2 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 26, 6:19 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
Manifold MarketsWill Gukesh D win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
Manifold MarketsWill Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
Manifold MarketsGame 14 FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Result?
Manifold MarketsFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
Kalshi2026 World Chess Championship: Winner
PolymarketRules
The next World Chess Championship will feature the youngest participants ever.
- Defending champion Gukesh will face off against Candidates winner the named outcome.
- Sindarov won the qualification very convincingly and is currently #5 in live ratings.
- Gukesh has been struggling recently and has dropped 55 points over the past year (currently #15).
- However, these things change quickly, and experience in these matches is paramount.
- First-time challengers often struggle with nerves at the beginning of the match, which could give Gukesh an advantage.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner · Javokhir Sindarov 67%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship? · Javokhir Sindarov 70%
- Also available on Polymarket — 2026 World Chess Championship: Winner · Javokhir Sindarov 75%