Current community forecast
Other 66.7%-2.3ptLeader of 36 outcomes
Forecasters
116
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 24, 3:40 AMJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gukesh D33%
Compare venues· Other
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Polymarket
2026 World Chess Championship: Winner
5mo
66%
34%
0%
+10 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$29K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
Also available on Gemini
World Chess Championship Winner
5mo
71.2%
28.8%
44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.5K
24h Vol$0
GEMINI
Also available on Kalshi
FIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
1.0 pts2y
65.7%
-2.0pt26.7%
-1.0pt1.9%
+6 more outcomes
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$4.6K
KALSHIRules
This market refers to this event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026.
- An option resolves YES if a player wins the event and NO otherwise.
- If they do not participate, their option resolves NO.
- If the tournament is delayed past 2026, I will adjust the resolution date until the end of the tournament.
- I have added all of the players who currently (as of May 7, 2024) have a live classical chess rating >= 2700.
- No additional players will be added.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.0k98.0%KALSHIHikaru Nakamura — No7d ago
KALSHIHikaru Nakamura — No7d agoVolume trend
$12Jul 168d of dataJul 27
Related Markets
Titled Tuesday Winner: Jul 28
$9.6KMagnus Carlsen: 29%KALSHI
KALSHI
Titled Tuesday Top 8: Jul 28
$3.8KHikaru Nakamura: 11%KALSHI
KALSHITitled Tuesday Top 3: Jul 28
$3.2KMagnus Carlsen: 35%KALSHI
KALSHI
Sinquefield Cup Winner
$3KA: 50%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETTitled Tuesday Winner: July 28
$2.3KA: 50%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Next Prime Minister of Romania?
$1.4KAlexandru Nazare: 35%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
NFL urges CFTC to strengthen rules on sports prediction markets: reportThe Block
KuCoin Marks Major Sponsorship Milestone as Ambassador Pogačar Wins Record Fifth Tour de FranceBlockchain Reporter
Galaxy Digital’s $75 Million Texas Tech Stadium Deal Is Crypto’s Boldest Branding Bet YetBlockchain Reporter
Galaxy Digital plants its name on Texas Tech football stadiumCrypto News
Galaxy Digital puts its name on Texas Tech football stadium in 15-year partnershipThe Block
Polymarket prices Golden Ball at 50% despite Spain reaching World Cup finalBlockchain.NewsRules
This market refers to this event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2026.
- An option resolves YES if a player wins the event and NO otherwise.
- If they do not participate, their option resolves NO.
- If the tournament is delayed past 2026, I will adjust the resolution date until the end of the tournament.
- I have added all of the players who currently (as of May 7, 2024) have a live classical chess rating >= 2700.
- No additional players will be added.