Current community forecast
Deepmind/Google/Alphabet 29%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
68
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 3, 24, 4:53 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
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PolymarketRules
This question seeks to identify who will first publicly reveal human-level AGI.
- Timeline: Voting closes at the end of 2029.
- The question may be resolved earlier if a clear winner emerges.
- If human-level AGI is not achieved by 2030, the question will resolve based on who has made the most progress towards the criteria.
- Definitions:
- Human-level AGI: Artificial Intelligence capable of doing almost all human cognitive tasks to a high level (equivalent or better than a median professional in the field).