Current community forecast
No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032 59.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 5:45 AM UTCJan 7, 27, 5:41 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market resolves based on which sector first demonstrates wide, real-world adoption of quantum computing for production (non-experimental) workloads.
- Resolution Criteria:
- • The market resolves YES for the first sector that meets the criteria above.
- • If no sector clearly meets the criteria by 31 December 2032, resolve to: “No sector shows ‘wide adoption’ by 31 Dec 2032.”
- • If multiple sectors advance, the earliest clear adoption wins.
- Academic-only usage or single-company pilots do not qualify as wide adoption.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads??
- Manifold Markets prices No sector shows “wide adoption” by 31 Dec 2032 at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads? resolve?
- Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads? is scheduled to resolve on January 7, 2027.
- How is Which sector will be the first to widely adopt quantum computing for production workloads? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves based on which sector first demonstrates wide, real-world adoption of quantum computing for production (non-experimental) workloads.