What are the current odds for When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI??

Manifold Markets prices Before 2030 at 72.9% as of October 30, 2026.

When does When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? resolve?

When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.

AIOne-Off4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Before 2030 72.9%

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 6 hours ago

Stale

Aug 31, 26, 7:37 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the date on which Thomas Kwa officially ceases to be an employee of OpenAI (assuming that he has already signed the contract).
Definition of "leaving": "Leaving" is defined as the termination of his employment contract with OpenAI, whether due to resignation, quitting, or termination.
An internal transfer to a different team within OpenAI does not count as leaving, but transferring to an external organization or spin-off does.
(Example: going to the OpenAI foundation would be considered leaving).