Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2030 66.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 31, 26, 7:37 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill Sam Altman leave OpenAI before Strong AGI is discovered by any organization?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the date on which Thomas Kwa officially ceases to be an employee of OpenAI (assuming that he has already signed the contract).
- Definition of "leaving": "Leaving" is defined as the termination of his employment contract with OpenAI, whether due to resignation, quitting, or termination.
- An internal transfer to a different team within OpenAI does not count as leaving, but transferring to an external organization or spin-off does.
- (Example: going to the OpenAI foundation would be considered leaving).
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2030 at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? resolve?
- When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd