Current implied probability
No 80%-6.3pt
Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$400
Low liquidityBid / Ask
10.7% / 29.2%
Spread
18.5 pt
Wide spreadComments
4
7d Change
-8.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 27, 25, 5:52 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Thomas Kwa leave OpenAI?
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PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.
- An official announcement of Ari’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Ari indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Open markets
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
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- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
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+4 more outcomes
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- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
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+5 more outcomes
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- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
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- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 80% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? resolve?
- Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.