When will the world population shrink year-over-year for the first time?
Macro & EconomyManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBefore 2100 85.9%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 20, 24, 8:06 PM UTCFeb 2, 00, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
The market will resolve positively when human population in a given year for the first time (after the creation of the question) is lower than in the previous year, according to https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth or an equivalent source.
- The "world population" is a number of biological humans living on Earth.
- This does not include AIs, ems and people living on other planets.
- If the first such year is say 2040, i.e. population in 2040 is lower than in 2039, then "the named outcome" will resolve as NO (because 2040 is not the named outcome), but 2050 and subsequent options will resolve as YES.
- If the population never shrinks, all the answers will resolve as NO (and possibly I will add more options further in the future).
- I do not bet on my own questions.