What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months?
Health & MedicineOne-Off11moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast60-69% 25.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
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14
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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-2.3 pts
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Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 15, 24, 9:29 PM UTCSep 2, 27, 6:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered.
- Phase 2b data at a 42 month timepoint showed 71% efficacy after four total doses (Abstract here, #6949).
- Resolves upon publication of peer-reviewed data from the R21 team at Oxford (expected to be before September 1st, 2026).
- Vaccine efficacy is defined as the primary endpoint for time to clinical malaria in seasonal sites, as defined in the paper linked above.
- 1Day Sooner has an R21 Status Report available here that may be useful.
- More malaria-related questions can be found on our Manifold account here.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months??
- Manifold Markets prices 60-69% at 26% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months? resolve?
- What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months? is scheduled to resolve on September 2, 2027.
- How is What will the phase 3 clinical trial results report for vaccine efficacy (%) of the R21 malaria vaccine at 48 months? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The 12 month phase 3 data indicates 75% vaccine efficacy of R21 in annual malaria sites in children at 12 months after the first dose was delivered.