What are the current odds for What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL??

Manifold Markets prices Discovery of novel concept in mathematics at 73% as of September 21, 2026.

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

12.7 pts (24h)One-OffAI3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Discovery of novel concept in mathematics 72.9%-12.7pt

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

-12.7 pts

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Jan 29, 25, 4:28 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Polymarket

Next Claude Opus released by which date?

Polymarket

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Kalshi

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Polymarket

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Manifold Markets

Rules

Resolves on January 1st 2030 to the set of answers which are analogous to "move 37" in the context of AI and/or LLMs trained using reinforcement learning.

These answers must describe emergent behavior in AI/LLMs made public knowledge after January 1st 2025, which become topics of significant interest and debate (similar to the discussion over "move 37").
Inspired by this tweet from Karpathy:
[image]https://x.com/karpathy/status/1884336943321997800

Report a data issue with this market

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

12.7 pts (24h)One-OffAI3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Discovery of novel concept in mathematics 72.9%-12.7pt

Leader of 5 outcomes

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

-12.7 pts

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Jan 29, 25, 4:28 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Polymarket

Next Claude Opus released by which date?

Polymarket

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Kalshi

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Polymarket

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?

Manifold Markets

Rules

Resolves on January 1st 2030 to the set of answers which are analogous to "move 37" in the context of AI and/or LLMs trained using reinforcement learning.

These answers must describe emergent behavior in AI/LLMs made public knowledge after January 1st 2025, which become topics of significant interest and debate (similar to the discussion over "move 37").
Inspired by this tweet from Karpathy:
[image]https://x.com/karpathy/status/1884336943321997800

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL??: Manifold Markets prices Discovery of novel concept in mathematics at 73% as of September 21, 2026.
When does What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL? resolve?: What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
How is What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves on January 1st 2030 to the set of answers which are analogous to "move 37" in the context of AI and/or LLMs trained using reinforcement learning.

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

What will be the new "move 37" for AI/LLMs trained with RL?

Frequently asked questions

Open markets

Best AI at the end of 2026?

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Next Claude Opus released on?

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Best AI this week

Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?