Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 79.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 4, 25, 3:24 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: "Loss of life - Accidental or deliberate loss of life, including suicide, extinction or cessation, due to the use or misuse of a technology system."
- This market is about whether a deployed AI system will be blamed for a large loss of life.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by 31 December 2035, there is a publicly available:
- official report from a government, regulator, court, accident/incident body, or major international organisation (WHO, UN, ICAO, etc.), or
- article from a major reputable news organisation (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, WSJ, The Guardian) that credibly reports such a finding,
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
- 24h Vol
- $100.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-11.0pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $262.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? resolve?
- [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: "Loss of life - Accidental or deliberate loss of life, including suicide, extinction or cessation, due to the use or misuse of a technology system."